as february draws to a close, we are faced with the same old dilemma. how should we invest at rrsp time?

i forecast the market would be up approximately eight to 10 per cent in the next few months. here are a few tea leaves to add to the mix.

- the super bowl: bad news, the steelers won. pittsburgh is part of the american football conference (afc) and the rule is that an afc victory at the super bowl presages a decline for wall street. it's happened in 80 per cent of the cases.

- the january effect dictates that "as goes january, goes the rest of the year." in the first month of the year the markets were up. the reference point is, however, somewhat less reliable. in the united states, in 68 per cent of cases, when january is bullish the year closes higher.

"in canada, it only works in a little more than 50 per cent of the cases," says market strategist peter gibson of desjardins securities.

- the presidential cycle. according to a study of pepperdine university, the first two years of a presidential term in the united states generally show markets under pressure. the two last years are the ones that show good returns.

since president george w. bush was re-elected in november 2004, it doesn't look too good for 2006.

so we've got two negative tea leaves (the super bowl and the presidential cycle) and one rather positive (the january effect). and our positive forecast for the year looks good so far. since jan. 1, toronto has moved up 4.3 per cent and new york, 3.1 per cent.

what are the rrsp options? here are the most traditional ones:

- bonds. one-year government bonds return 3.75 to 3.85 per cent. over five years, it's four per cent. it's not the best return, but it's guaranteed.

in a bear market, it could be an act of genius.

- equity funds. according to our prophecy, they provide potentially 1.5 times the return offered by bonds.

over long periods, history shows stocks have always brought in more than bonds. a study released by the caisse de depot et placement last year concludes from 1900 to 2000 canadian stocks delivered a real annual return of 6.4 per cent while bonds yielded 1.8 per cent. in the united states, the gap is even wider, at 6.7 per cent versus 1.6 per cent.

- balanced funds. because of the stock components, this investment vehicle is presented as a compromise for the person asking for a higher return than what bonds offer and is ready to take on a little more risk.

- individual selection. the riskiest, but also potentially the most profitable. warren buffett and charlie munger have never been advocates of a too-broad diversification and submit enrichment comes from a strong weighting in good vehicles.

for the average investor, this means choosing two or three securities that could do well over the next few years. but you can't make a mistake.

buffett recommends the average investor bets on investment funds instead